Falklands – You Heard It Here First

As we learn of more successes in the oil exploration around the Falkland Islands, we have to consider what the future holds.

That the Falkland Islands are sitting upon a reservoir of oil, and that that reservoir is outside the Middle East and within the reach of the West, is a goeological fact. That the Falkland Islands are, on paper, a British territory is an accident of history.

Nobody would want these islands if they were a straightforward financial drain on their host country. But if they have oil, and lots of it, then they take on a different shape entirely.

Since the defence review, and yesterday’s docking of the Ark Royal for the last time, Britain no longer has the defence clout to defend – much less retake – the Falklands. If Argentina, or another state, were to take control of the airport and runway then it would be all over in a military sense. If that state were acting on the tacit approval of the USA, tempted to such an act by the attraction of a source of oil inside only a few timezones, then Britain would have to give it up forever.

The Falklands are about to cease to be British. They are sitting on top of something that everbody wants, and that Britain does not have the muscle to fight for. It might not be an outright invasion, or territorial conquest, but rest assured that the Amercians – albeit indirectly – will lay claim to that oil. This may be in the form of “licences”, or something else, but Britain no longer has the military clout to say “this is ours, and it stays ours”.

Wait and see.

This Will Not End Well

So a bundle of the great and the good got together in a smoke-filled room to discuss the dire finances of Europe. The strong, ganged up against the weak, looked at the holes in their own finances and came up with a “deal” that would see the weak ones signing up to a lifetime of penury.

The demands being made rode roughshod over democracy, completely ignored who was actually responsible for the Europe-wide financial black hole, and decided that this little lot was all going to be paid back by people who could not afford it and were not to blame.

A few people on the sidelines said that this was a really really bad idea and that it was sowing the seeds of much bigger and more dangerous problems in the years ahead. Those voices did not fit the agenda and were dismissed.

Of course I am talking about the Treaty of Versailles after World War I. One of the dissenting voices was John Maynard Keynes – who walked out of the negotiations and told everybody assembled that they were sowing the seeds of a future war with Germany.

The powers that be pressed ahead regardless, punishing the German people for the ravages of the war with punitive reparations and repayment obligations. The Weimar printing presses went into overdrive, causing untold suffering and hardshiip for millions of ordinary people.

Step forward a charismatic young Corporal, bitter from the German humiliation dispensed by the Allies. With the right message, playing to what people wanted to hear, and the right organisation, this guy managed to get democratically bestowed with enough power that he was then able to suspend democracy and set about exacting totalitarian revenge.

So, this week, Ireland sit down in Dublin with the powers that be from the EU and the IMF and has terms dictated to her – generations of penury to pay off loans that had to be made because of reckless bankers. Yet again, those who point out the folly of this are dismissed as “Europhobes” or of not seeing the whole picture. Yet again, nobody stops to question that whilst this might look good on paper – for the ones getting 7% interest on this shotgun loan – it’s not sustainable.

Ireland’s corporal may already be waiting in the wings. Gerry Adams, no stranger to organised dissent, is standing for election to the Dublin Parliament. Whilst I am not suggesting for a second that Adams is anything like Hitler, you do have to wonder what the outcome will be if somebody as committed, astute, organised and charismatic as Adams manages to seize the reins of power.

Like Versailles, I can guarantee you this much – the outcome won’t be the cushy ride for the victors, at the expense of the humiliation of a people, that they thought it would be.

This will not end well.

The Irony

So, as Ireland goes belly up and cedes her hard-fought sovereignty, the markets turn to Portugal.

Possibly time for a little disclosure here – I work on the trading floor of an Investment Bank. That does not mean that I agree with them or that I love them, any more than a cap-wearing “do you want fries with that?” agrees or buys into MacDonalds corporate ethos. It’s a job, and it pays my bills and it feeds me and my family. Oh, and for what it’s worth, I do not get a bonus of any sort. I consider it a tax – I take money from people of whom I do not approve, and I spend it on things they would not approve of – very similar to a Labour Government really.

Today, in The Mail of all places, was juxtaposed a tribute to two of the most unlikely people you would ever find sharing column inches of tribute – Margaret Thatcher and Gordon Brown.

The mention of either of these individuals has a polarising and divisive effect. Both of them were absolutely passionate about their beliefs – beiliefs about the role (and size) of the state and the amount of your own money you should be allowed to keep versus the amount of money that the State should spend on your behalf. Both were uncompromising, obstinate, omnipotent, intolerant leaders who wielded a rod of iron and who rutjlessly dispatched political foes. Both of them were considered electoral liabilities by many swathes of their parties, yet only the Tories had the cojones to perform the Regicide. Both of them despised the politics and economics of the other, yet all of their extremeness resulted in a common goal:

Keep Britain Out Of The Euro

But for Brown, Blair would have signed up to it in a flash. It was Maggie’s refusal to join the ERM that led to her downfall.

Both of them, if they were dead, would turn in their graves at the prospect of being labelled as on the same team as the other yet, paradoxically, both of them fought – to the death – for the preservation of Sterling.

I grew up in Scotland in my formative years in the early 80′s and I witnessed – first hand – the decimation of industry at the hands of Thatcher. I despised this woman, and all she stood for yet at the same time I wished that somebody of that single-minded ruthlessness was on my side.

I have lived in the Southeast, in my family-rearing years in the 90′s and noughties and have witnessed – first hand – the decimation of the middle class under Brown and Blair. I despised this man, and the Marxism he stood for, yet at the same time I wished that such single-minded ruthlessness was in my corner.

As Winston Churchill put it:

“If a man is not a Socialist at 20 then he has no heart. If he is still a Socialist at 40, then he has no brain”

The traders on the fllor are bored of Ireland now – “it’s trading sideways so what’s the point”, as one of them said today. Their eyes are now fixed on Portugal. Portugal will fall, as did Ireland and Greece, it’s only a matter of time.

Spain is the real prize. It is the Maginot Line of the Euro. Spain is too big to fail, yet too big to save. When the traders have finished with Portugal – which wont take long – then they will go for Spain next. If Spain falls, the Euro falls.

Whatever happens, the Euro as we know it now is dead and will not survive beyond 2020. Whatever your political leaning, left or right, you can raise a glass to Thatcher or Brown and thank either or both of them for the fact that we are not in it.

Middle Management

I think that Middle Management is one of the most thankless jobs in the world. For the most part, you are expected to do nothing more than keep your troops in line pursuing objectives and policies that you do not agree with whilst presenting a public face of complete solidarity.

Take Cameron, for instance. He is nothing more than a Middle Manager, beating the drum for his superiors in Europe. “Cast-Iron Call-Me Dave”, who promised a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, pledges to borrow another £450million of your money to increase Europe’s budget, then pledges another £7billion of your money to bail out Ireland, and has to borrow the money to do it. In order to make the books balance, he cuts Child Benefit amongst other things.

Tell you what Dave, let’s ask the great unwashed. Let’s ask those of us, like me, who are too stupid to have an informed opinion and who are simply disinterested in reading the Lisbon Treaty (I read it, and I lost the will to live).

Let’s simply ask the British People what they want. Do you want to be part of a United States of Europe? Yes/No. Do you want to be part of a single currency? Yes/No. Two questions, two very very simple questions. If the answer is “Yes”, then you have the mandate to continue your kowtowing to Brussels with our blessing. If the answer is “No”, then it will obviously piss on your chips as far as a political career in Europe is concerned, but it will at least give the British People a chance to determine their future.

You want to know where revolution comes from? Where dissent comes from? Where civil disobedience comes from? They all have the same root – people not being asked. People, ordinary people, not being allowed a say in their destiny.

Ask us what we wish, and the answer will be what it will be. If a legitimate majority of us say “We Want Europe!”, then Europeans we will become. If not, then we should not.

And don’t perpetrate the lie that it is not possible to have a referendum on a treaty that is already signed. Our accession to the EEC was signed in 1973, and we didn’t have a referendum on it till 1975. One of the great qualities of our Parliamentary democracy is that no Parliament may bind a successive one – only a referendum can do that.

Or perhaps we have already adopted the European model of lawmaking – laws are passed by decree and are binding on all future legislatures?

Give us the referendum, have the balls to lance this boil once and for all. Stop being a middle manager and be a leader. Say what you want, inspire us to follow you, then lead the charge. Either we will be right behind you, or we will not.

But take the British people for fools at your peril. If History teaches us anything it is that the British, that most tolerant of folk, can withstand pretty much anything except being taken for fools.

EU-phemisms

A Euphemism is, according to the dictionary, “an inoffensive or indirect expression that is substituted for one that is considered offensive or too harsh“.

So, instead of saying things like “five British soldiers were strafed by machine-gun fire from an American helicopter until their bloody carcasses were nothing more than pulp“, we say “Five brave British soldiers were killed by friendly fire“. Oh, that’s OK then. It was “friendly fire“. Makes it sound nicer.

A Master of language, gifted with foresight, was George Orwell. We honour him to this day by speaking of “Orwellian” this-and-that – by which we mean the clever or devious or cynical use of language to cover up what’s really going on.

That was only part of Orwell’s point. The other part – his main thrust if you like – was that whoever owns the language owns the thoughts. If you remove every possible way of expressing displeasure from the language, then you remove displeasure from society since no-one can express it. There is no “bad“, there is only “double-plus-ungood“.

If you want a contemporary example of Orwellian language, in the sense that I just defined it, then look no further than the EU. Look at how what were once “Member Nations” have over the years become “Member States” and now – according to George Osborne – have become “Regions“. You never noticed it happening, and you never thought about it.

We have Labour MPs accusing the Government of using the wedding announcement of William and Kate to “bury bad news“, and we are somehow expected to forget the cynicism of Jo Moore on September 11 2001 when she coined the phrase.

Reports are being made that Gordon Brown was incandescent with rage at the announcement from the palace. These reports are saying that, for years, Gordon Brown’s regime was putting William under pressure to announce the wedding and that this was so that a lot of bad news could be buried in the ensuing hoo-hah as the wedding grabbed all of the front pages.

There’s another EU-phemism for you – “reports are being made“. In order to successfully defend against libel, I only need to point to these reports – whether they are true or not. It’s like the word “allegedly”. If I were to say:

“Gordon Brown tried to get Prince William to announce the wedding before the election“

then it would be potentially libellous since I don’t know if it is true or not. But if I were to say:

“Gordon brown allegedly tried to get Prince Willian to announce the wedding before the election“

then there is no libel, all I am reporting is that an allegation was made. Watch out for that word – “allegedly“.

Apprently, We, collectively, hate our politicans. We do not trust them, and we believe that they lie to us. We have only ourselves to blame, mainly by allowing them to get the upper hand in their use of language and weasel words. It is not their use of these words that is the problem, it is our blindness to the tricks that language can play that is the problem.

Open your eyes, and your ears. Spot words like “allegedly” and see them for what they are. Spot phrases like “it was reported that …”, and understand what it means.

Above all, notice when things get categorised differently. If we had spotted, all of us, the subtle change from being a “Member Nation” of the EEC to being a “Member State“, or a “Region“, of the European Union, then things might have worked out quite differently for us.

One final thought. Comments on this site are moderated to prevent spam but are not filtered on viewpoint. If you have a view, even if it is dissenting, then I will publish the comment. I am a huge believer in the words of Noam Chomsky:

“If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all“

and that includes EU-pehemisms. Although I do reserve the right to call them out when I see them.

What Planet Are We On?

In these cash-strapped times, and as Discovery goes up for the last time with nothing to replace her, even the mighty NASA are feeling the pinch.

They have realized that the bulk of the cost involved in a mission to Mars is in returning the astronauts safely home to the Earth. What to do to get the cost down?

Simple. Don’t return them. Make it a one way mission. Simples.

Now, whilst there are doubtless many folks we’d like to see put aboard this ‘B Ark’ (Douglas Adams fans will get the point), it may well be the case that capacity is limited and we can’t, for instance, round up the entire looney left and ship them all off to the appropriately-named Red Planet where they can have eternity to transform it into a bastion of stellar socialist squalor.

So that calls for a rethink.

Then I encountered this University course. And I realised that we would give evolution on Mars far more of a fighting chance if we just, erm, left the Left behind here on Earth.

My application is in to NASA, and I am volunteering for the one-way mission to Mars. If nothing else, I will probably be long dead by the time the looney left or the EUSSR get their grubby paws on it.

Read It And Weep

No, really.

Watch this.  A Channel 4 documentary.

Then weep.